Braves and Bluejays mix it up in MVC action
NCAA Basketball Betting Lines
01/28/2012 -
Omaha, NE (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two teams at opposite ends of the Missouri Valley
Conference standings meet for the second time in three weeks tonight, as the
Bradley Braves have made the trip to Omaha to challenge the 15th-ranked
Creighton Bluejays.
Bradley is a disappointing 6-16 on the year, and the Braves have won just one
of their 10 conference games played thus far. They are in the midst of a
three-game losing streak, the latest setback coming at Southern Illinois
(77-60) on Tuesday night, and they have won just once in their last 13 games
overall. Furthermore, coach Geno Ford's club has dropped seven straight road
tilts, and has tasted defeat in its last 13 trips to Omaha. Bradley is a
dismal 1-17 in the month of the January in each of the past two seasons.
At the other end of the success spectrum sits a Creighton team that is 19-2 on
the season, and has won nine of its first 10 league bouts. The Bluejays, who
are coached by Greg McDermott, have won nine in a row and are coming off a
77-69 victory at Drake on Wednesday night. Creighton is actually tied with
Wichita State atop the MVC standings, although the Bluejays have a slight edge
over the Shockers thanks to a 68-61 win when the two teams met on New Year's
Eve in Wichita. They will play again in Omaha on February 11.
Creighton owns a narrow 43-41 lead in the all-time series with Bradley, and
the Bluejays topped the Braves in the first meeting this season, 92-83, on
January 7. In that game, Doug McDermott scored a career-high 44 points for
Creighton, while Bradley's Taylor Brown hit for 25.
Doug McDermott scored 30 points to power Creighton past Drake on Wednesday
night, as the Bluejays shot an even 50 percent from the field while allowing
the Bulldogs to connect on 44.6 percent of their total shot, but only 4-of-18
three-point attempts (.222). In addition to another outstanding effort by
McDermott, who also grabbed nine rebounds, Creighton got 15 points from
Jahenns Manigat and 11 from Gregory Echenique. Grant Gibbs only scored four
points, but he was much more intent on getting his teammates involved as he
finished with seven of the squad's 17 assists on the night. The Bluejays
easily won the rebounding battle, 37-25, and routinely do so against the
opposition by nearly six caroms per contest this season. McDermott (23.5 ppg,
8.5 rpg) continues his quest for not only MVC Player of the Year, but also for
some national honors, as he is a 61.3 percent shooter who also happens to be
lights out from long range (36-of-72, .500) as well as the foul line (66-
of-80, .825). Antoine Young is the only other CU player currently averaging
double digits on the year, but his 11.7 ppg comes on just 40.6 percent field
goal efficiency. He does have 91 assists, which ranks second to Gibbs' 120.
Echenique brings 9.3 points and 7.1 boards per game to the table, and he is
far-and-away the leading shot blocker on the team with 34.
Bradley is one of only three teams in the MVC with a negative scoring margin
at the moment, and its -8.1 is by the far the worst figure in the league.
Brown currently heads a group of three double-digit scorers for the Braves
with 16.7 ppg, and he is also among the team leaders when it comes to cleaning
the glass with his 7.0 rpg. Dyricus Simms-Edwards (11.8 ppg, 3.2 apg) and Walt
Lemon, Jr. (11.7 ppg, 2.6 apg) have at times done what they could to help the
club win, but the former is shooting just 37.2 percent from the field, while
the latter has been guilty of a team-high 66 turnovers. As a team, Bradley is
hitting just 31.1 percent of its three-point launches, while the opposition
turns the trick at 36.2 percent, and is shooting 45.6 percent from the field
overall. Brown, who came into the week as the MVC's fourth-highest scorer,
poured in 21 points, but the Braves couldn't overcome a poor start as they
missed 10 of their first 11 shots, and wound up losing by 17 at Southern
Illinois earlier in the week. Simms-Edwards was the only other Brave to finish
in double figures, as he tallied 13 points, but it was clear Bradley was in
over its head as the team shot just 36.4 percent from the floor (.167 from
beyond the arc), while SIU hit on 59.6 percent of its total shots (.385 from
downtown).
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While the NFL is the sport wagered on the heaviest, college football betting lines has become more and more popular as people realize it’s a game that can be beat. The NCAA football season gets longer each year with the addition of numerous bowl games and with that comes more opportunities for more money in your pocket, if handled correctly.
Betting on college football is not the same as with the NFL, so make sure you separate the two. Because of the vast number of teams, the parity between college football programs is slight and thus, you are going to see some high numbers in the NCAA. Teams favored by more than 40 points are not uncommon especially early in the season when teams playing their non-conference schedules.
The best advice when trying to tackle these enormous spreads and is to just stay away. A team that is favored by 40 points is favored by that many for a reason while teams getting 40 points are bad enough that they shouldn’t be touched. Set yourself a spread limit. Getting rid of these games will cut down on the number of contests that you need to handicap while staying away from backdoor or front-door covers.
What is a backdoor and front-door cover you ask? A backdoor cover is a team that is getting beat by more than the spread, but scores late to get within that number thus covering the spread. A front-door cover is just the opposite where the favorite scores late and covers the number they are favored by.
These front-door and backdoor covers are common when second and third string players enter games in college football and it can be the worst nightmare for some bettors. These players can also be your best friend, but ask any bettor and he will give you more instances on losing in this situation than winning. It just seems to work out that way even though everything evens out in the end.
College football betting has some of the softest lines of any sport and it’s being able to find these lines that will make you a successful college football handicapper. The NFL and NBA have the tightest lines around and while those sports can be beat by looking at situations and systems, college football doesn’t quite work that way. It’s much more manual, but when done correctly, it’s much more gratifying as well.
Getting into the nuts and bolts of college football means looking at the many stats in order to beat the number. As opposed to pro football, college football is less dependent on situations and angles and more on certain statistics. Rushing offense and defense, pass efficiency offense and defense and turnover margins are huge. These are vital in the NFL, but even more so when it comes to college football.
Being able to run the ball in college football has always been a key factor in the overall success of a team. The same adage also goes for teams who have the ability to stop the run. Putting these two factors together can produce some positive results in a team’s record both straight up and against the spread. These numbers show huge differences in teams and the spread may not take those into effect, which is where the value comes into play.
Passing yardage numbers both for and against can be a misinterpreted statistic. However, pass efficiency has always been one of the best ways to look at a teams’ passing game ability both offensively and defensively. But is it really a true indication of how they perform? I wouldn’t say so since they are raw passing numbers with nothing else taken into consideration.
I use pass efficiency ratings when doing my handicapping but I adjust my numbers based on a number of factors including power ratings, strength of schedules, personnel and injuries. This gives a much better picture of a team’s ability to pass effectively and also being able to defend the pass. Tweaking pass efficiency stats instead of raw passing yards is the key.
Turnovers are the single most frustrating, and at times the most gratifying, aspect of a college football lines, mostly because they are so unpredictable. They are part of the game and most of the time nothing can be done to control them. However, turnovers are contagious and they can carry over from game to game and season to season.
It’s important to know how to forecast these unforeseen events and how to use them to your advantage. You can find ways to give yourself an edge by looking at past histories of teams and coaches and how they have fared in turnover wars in the past. Instead of turnovers hurting you at the wrong times, find ways to use them to your advantage.
As you can see, college football handicapping is very labor intensive and isn’t just based on where teams are ranked in the AP and coaches polls. Experience, coaching and match-ups are all important since unlike the NFL, college teams turn over much more often with new personnel at most positions every single year. Keeping current on this information is vital.
Betting NCAA football can be lucrative if done correctly, but more importantly, it’s just plain enjoyable because it can be beat. College football is one of the best sports to watch with some of the best rivalries taking place in all of sports. The only downfall is that a championship isn’t decided on the field but on a computer-based system that is the Bowl Championship Series. That will change someday and we will all be better off for it.
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